

<br>
<h2>
    <u>Your task:</u>
</h2>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
    <br>
    In this study, <b>your task is to guess which of two bags was secretly selected by a computer.</b> As a hint, you will see a colored ball that was drawn from the secretly-selected bag.
    <ul>
        <li>
            The setup is as follows:
            <center>
                <div style="width: 400px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin: 0 auto;">
                    <div style="font-size: 20px; border-bottom: 1px solid black; padding-bottom: 5px; margin-bottom: 10px;">Card Deck</div>
                    <div style="display: flex;">
                      <div style="width: calc(50% - 10px); border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; margin-right: 10px; text-align: center;">
                        <u><b class="par2">60</b></u><br>
                       Bag R Cards
                      </div>
                      <div style="width: calc(50% - 10px); border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center;">
                        <u><b class="par2_compl">40</b></u><br>
                        Bag B Cards
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                
                <div style="display: flex; justify-content: center;"><img height="279" src="https://harvard.az1.qualtrics.com/CP/Graphic.php?IM=IM_38bveJ6pXKt7gAS" style="width: 400px; height: 50px;" width="700"></div>
                <div style="display: flex; justify-content: center;">
                    <div style="width: 300px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin-right: 25px;">
                      <div>Bag R</div>
                      <div style="color: red;"><u><b class="">Y</b></u> red balls</div>
                      <div style="color: blue;"><u><b class="">(100 - Y)</b></u> blue balls</div>
                    </div>
                    <div style="width: 300px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin-left: 25px;">
                      <div>Bag B</div>
                      <div style="color: red;"><u><b class="">(100 - Y)</b></u> red balls</div>
                      <div style="color: blue;"><u><b class="">Y</b></u> blue balls</div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                  <br>
                  <div style="text-align: center;">
                    <span style="display: inline-block; font-size: 70px; color: #c1c1c1;">↓</span>
                  </div>
                  <br>
                  <div style="width: 550px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin: 0 auto;">
                    The computer will randomly select a card from the deck. It will then randomly draw a ball from the corresponding bag and show it to you.<br><br>
                    <div class="">
                    </div>
                </div>
                  
                  <br>
        
                
            </center>
        </li>

        <li>
                 There is a deck of <b>100 cards</b>, 60 of which have <b>“Bag R”</b> written on them and 40 of which have <b>“Bag B”</b> written on them. 
            <!-- There is a deck of <b>100 cards</b>, some of which have <b>“Bag R”</b> written on them and some of which have <b>“Bag B”</b> written on them. We denote the number of cards with Bag R on them by “<b>X</b>”  because it varies across the rounds of the task (the number of cards with Bag B on them is 100-X). -->
        </li>
    <li>
        There are <b>two bags</b>, Bag R and Bag B. <b>Both bags contain 100 balls each,</b> some of which are red and some of which are blue. 
        Bag R always contains at least as many red balls as blue balls, and Bag B always contains at least as many blue balls as red balls. 
        <b>It is always the case that the number of red balls in Bag R is equal to the number of blue balls in Bag B.</b>
        We denote this number by <b>“Y”</b> because it varies across the rounds in this task.  
        <ul>
            
                <li>
                    For example, Bag R might contain 95 red balls and 5 blue balls, and so Bag B would contain 5 red balls and 95 blue balls.
                </li>
        
        </ul>
    </li> 
    <li> 
        Each round proceeds as follows:
        <ul>
            <li>
                You will be told <b>how many balls in Bag R and Bag B are red or blue.</b>
            </li>
            <li>
                The computer will <b>randomly select one of the 100 cards.</b> <b>If the card has "Bag R" written on it, the computer selects Bag R. If the card has "Bag B" written on it, the computer selects Bag B.</b> You will <b>not observe </b> which card was drawn, so you will not know for sure which bag was selected.
            </li>
            <li>
                The computer will then <b>randomly draw one ball from the selected bag and show it to you.</b>
            </li>
            <li>
                You will then be asked to provide <b>a percentage chance to indicate how likely you think it is that the computer selected Bag R or B.</b> 
            </li>
        </ul>
    </li>
    <li>
        In total, you will complete 11 rounds of this task. 
        Across these rounds, the number of red and blue balls in Bag R and Bag B will vary.
        These rounds are completely independent from one another. 
        If one of the rounds of this task is selected to determine your bonus, only your decision in this one round will determine your bonus.

     <!--
     In total, you will complete 11 rounds of this task. 
     Across these rounds, both (1) the number of red and blue balls in Bag R and Bag B, and (2) the number of Bag R and Bag B cards will vary.
     These rounds are completely independent from one another. If one of the rounds of this task is selected to determine your bonus, only your decision in this one round will determine your bonus.

     -->  
    </li>
</ul>
</div> 
<br>
    <hr>
    <br> 
<h2> 
        <u>Your bonus payment:</u>
</h2>
<br>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
    Your decisions  may affect your bonus payment. 
    For each round, there will be a statistically correct answer. 
    If a decision in this study is selected for payment, you will receive $<span class="incent_treat_1"></span> if your answer is within +/- 1 percentage point of the statistically correct answer, and nothing otherwise.
    <div style="width: 100%; text-align: center; margin-top: 10px" class="instr_button_div">
        <button id="button_instr" class="revealbutton instr_button"><span style="color:#fff;">Next</span></button>
    </div>
</div>
<div class="hidding_div" style="display: none;">
    <br>
    <hr>
 <br>
<h2>
    <u>Example:</u>
</h2>
<br>
<center>
        <div style="width: 400px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin: 0 auto;">
            <div style="font-size: 20px; border-bottom: 1px solid black; padding-bottom: 5px; margin-bottom: 10px;">Card Deck</div>
            <div style="display: flex;">
              <div style="width: calc(50% - 10px); border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; margin-right: 10px; text-align: center;">
                <u><b class="par2">60</b></u><br>
               Bag R Cards
              </div>
              <div style="width: calc(50% - 10px); border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center;">
                <u><b class="par2_compl">40</b></u><br>
                Bag B Cards
              </div>
            </div>
        </div>
        
        <div style="display: flex; justify-content: center;">
            <img height="279" src="https://harvard.az1.qualtrics.com/CP/Graphic.php?IM=IM_38bveJ6pXKt7gAS" style="width: 400px; height: 50px;" width="700">
        </div>
        <div style="display: flex; justify-content: center;">
            <div style="width: 300px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin-right: 25px;">
              <div>Bag R</div>
              <div style="color: red;"><u><b class="">70</b></u> red balls</div>
              <div style="color: blue;"><u><b class="">30</b></u> blue balls</div>
            </div>
            <div style="width: 300px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin-left: 25px;">
              <div>Bag B</div>
              <div style="color: red;"><u><b class="">30</b></u> red balls</div>
              <div style="color: blue;"><u><b class="">70</b></u> blue balls</div>
            </div>
        </div>
        <br>
        <div style="text-align: center;">
            <span style="display: inline-block; font-size: 70px; color: #c1c1c1;">↓</span>
        </div>
        <br>
        <div style="width: 550px; border: 1px solid black; padding: 10px; text-align: center; margin: 0 auto;">
            The computer randomly selected a card from the deck and then randomly drew the following ball from the selected bag:
            <div  style="background-color: blue;     width: 50px;
            height: 50px;
            border-radius: 50%;
            margin: 0 auto;">
            </div>
            <br>
            (The ball is blue)
        </div>
          <br>

</center>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
    <br>
    <ul>
        <li>
            In the example above, <!--there are 50 cards labeled "Bag R" and 50 cards labeled "Bag B".--> Bag R contains 70 red and 30 blue balls and bag B contains 30 red and 70 blue balls.
        </li>
        <li>
            A blue ball was drawn.
        </li>
        <li>
            You would then tell us the percentage chance you think the computer selected Bag R, based on the information provided.
        </li>
    </ul>
</div>
<br>
<hr>
<br>    
<h2>
   <u>Your certainty:</u>
</h2>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
   <br>
   In each round, we will ask you two questions:
    <br>
   <ul>
       <li>
        You will tell us the percentage chance you think the computer selected Bag R. 
    </li>
       <li>
        We will ask you <b>how certain</b> you are about your answer. Specifically, we are interested in how likely you think it is (in percentage terms) that your answer is actually the statistically correct answer.
       </li>
   </ul>
</div>
</div>